UBS CH Property Fund - Swiss Mixed Sima Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
1,657.26
decreased by 26.22
1 Week
1,674.26
decreased by 9.22
1 Month
1,704.88
increased by 21.40
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:15 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 23, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 365 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~365 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.51 |
| αARCH | 0.0192 | 1.32 |
| βGARCH | 0.9731 | 133.67*** |
| γleverage | 0.0116 | 0.36 |
0.998
Persistence365d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.51 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0192 | 1.32 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9731 | 133.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0116 | 0.36 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
365 days
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