V-Lab
UBS CH Property Fund - Swiss Mixed Sima Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
1,697.30
increased by 7.98
1 Week
1,694.21
increased by 4.89
1 Month
1,752.62
increased by 63.30
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 12:50 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 23, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 366 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~366 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.51 |
| αARCH | 0.0192 | 1.32 |
| βGARCH | 0.9731 | 133.72*** |
| γleverage | 0.0116 | 0.36 |
0.998
Persistence366d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.51 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0192 | 1.32 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9731 | 133.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0116 | 0.36 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
366 days
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