V-Lab
UBS CH Property Fund - Swiss Mixed Sima Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
2,016.42
increased by 93.66
1 Week
1,908.56
decreased by 14.20
1 Month
1,853.91
decreased by 68.85
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 03:44 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 23, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 371 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 2.02** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0193 | 5.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9730 | 533.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0116 | 1.45 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
371 days
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