V-Lab
Katana Capital Ltd/Fund Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
284,063,400.00
1 Week
285,728,500.00
1 Month
295,557,650.00
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 06:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 27, 2005 to Sep 28, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.0098 | 0.64 |
| βGARCH | 0.9884 | 145.89*** |
| γleverage | 0.0035 | 0.10 |
1.000
Persistence-
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0098 | 0.64 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9884 | 145.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0035 | 0.10 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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