V-Lab
Katana Capital Ltd/Fund Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
297,873,000.00
1 Week
299,123,250.00
1 Month
316,794,658.33
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 27, 2005 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.0099 | 0.64 |
| βGARCH | 0.9884 | 145.63*** |
| γleverage | 0.0034 | 0.10 |
1.000
Persistence693147d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0099 | 0.64 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9884 | 145.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0034 | 0.10 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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