V-Lab
Katana Capital Ltd/Fund Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
390,147,700.00
decreased by 6,341,200.00
1 Week
395,330,933.33
decreased by 1,157,966.67
1 Month
407,237,566.67
increased by 10,748,666.67
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 05:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 27, 2005 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3831 | 1.80* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0772 | 2.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8516 | 13.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 2.2252 | 0.85 |
| γ2 | -4.9074 | -1.24 |
| γ3 | 4.9860 | 2.04** |
| γ4 | -4.4207 | -2.26** |
| γ5 | 4.6231 | 1.71* |
| γ6 | -3.9888 | -1.59 |
| γ7 | 2.0406 | 1.18 |
| γ8 | 0.9930 | 0.58 |
| γ9 | -3.9324 | -1.85* |
| γ10 | 4.3252 | 1.52 |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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