Katana Capital Ltd/Fund Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
478,132,500.00
decreased by 5,373,700.00
1 Week
480,819,350.00
decreased by 2,686,850.00
1 Month
532,116,309.09
increased by 48,610,109.09
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 27, 2005 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3853 | 1.82* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0765 | 2.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8516 | 13.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 2.3379 | 0.89 |
| γ2 | -5.1283 | -1.28 |
| γ3 | 5.1936 | 2.11** |
| γ4 | -4.5931 | -2.27** |
| γ5 | 4.7200 | 1.72* |
| γ6 | -3.9744 | -1.60 |
| γ7 | 1.9090 | 1.14 |
| γ8 | 1.1740 | 0.69 |
| γ9 | -4.0017 | -1.84* |
| γ10 | 4.2810 | 1.24 |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
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