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Katana Capital Ltd/Fund Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

390,147,700.00

decreased by 6,341,200.00

1 Week

395,330,933.33

decreased by 1,157,966.67

1 Month

407,237,566.67

increased by 10,748,666.67

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 05:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Katana Capital Ltd/Fund ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 27, 2005 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3831
1.80*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0772
2.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8516
13.59***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ12.2252
0.85
γ2-4.9074
-1.24
γ34.9860
2.04**
γ4-4.4207
-2.26**
γ54.6231
1.71*
γ6-3.9888
-1.59
γ72.0406
1.18
γ80.9930
0.58
γ9-3.9324
-1.85*
γ104.3252
1.52

Persistence:

0.929

Half-life:

9 days