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Katana Capital Ltd/Fund Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

478,132,500.00

decreased by 5,373,700.00

1 Week

480,819,350.00

decreased by 2,686,850.00

1 Month

532,116,309.09

increased by 48,610,109.09

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Katana Capital Ltd/Fund ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 27, 2005 to Jul 3, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3853
1.82*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0765
2.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8516
13.47***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ12.3379
0.89
γ2-5.1283
-1.28
γ35.1936
2.11**
γ4-4.5931
-2.27**
γ54.7200
1.72*
γ6-3.9744
-1.60
γ71.9090
1.14
γ81.1740
0.69
γ9-4.0017
-1.84*
γ104.2810
1.24

Persistence:

0.928

Half-life:

9 days