V-Lab
Sherborne Investors (Guernsey) C Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
276,876,200.00
decreased by 7,600.00
1 Week
276,876,200.00
decreased by 7,600.00
1 Month
269,299,500.00
decreased by 7,584,300.00
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 09:01 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 11, 2017 to Sep 29, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 115 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~115 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5982 | 1.05 |
| αARCH | 0.6419 | 2.57** |
| βGARCH | 0.3520 | 1.41 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 11.5580 | 0.95 |
| γ2 | -33.9608 | -1.89* |
| γ3 | 37.5797 | 3.00*** |
| γ4 | -22.7780 | -2.23** |
| γ5 | 24.7728 | 1.83* |
| γ6 | -44.4488 | -2.96*** |
| γ7 | 42.7524 | 4.65*** |
| γ8 | -13.9606 | -2.16** |
| γ9 | -2.4773 | -0.19 |
| γ10 | 1.7645 | 0.09 |
0.994
Persistence115d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5982 | 1.05 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6419 | 2.57** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3520 | 1.41 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 11.5580 | 0.95 |
| γ2 | -33.9608 | -1.89* |
| γ3 | 37.5797 | 3.00*** |
| γ4 | -22.7780 | -2.23** |
| γ5 | 24.7728 | 1.83* |
| γ6 | -44.4488 | -2.96*** |
| γ7 | 42.7524 | 4.65*** |
| γ8 | -13.9606 | -2.16** |
| γ9 | -2.4773 | -0.19 |
| γ10 | 1.7645 | 0.09 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
115 days
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