V-Lab
Sherborne Investors (Guernsey) C Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
22,883,980,000.00
decreased by 80,000.00
1 Week
22,883,980,000.00
decreased by 80,000.00
1 Month
21,909,426,666.67
decreased by 974,633,333.33
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 03:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 11, 2017 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5592 | 1.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6627 | 2.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3305 | 1.35 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 11.8241 | 0.95 |
| γ2 | -34.6814 | -1.90* |
| γ3 | 38.4521 | 3.08*** |
| γ4 | -23.9365 | -2.39** |
| γ5 | 26.2507 | 1.99** |
| γ6 | -43.9079 | -3.09*** |
| γ7 | 37.2658 | 4.82*** |
| γ8 | -4.3595 | -0.66 |
| γ9 | -17.1929 | -1.42 |
| γ10 | 40.7271 | 2.55** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
101 days
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