V-Lab
Sherborne Investors (Guernsey) C Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
26,653,420,000.00
decreased by 80,000.00
1 Week
24,289,217,500.00
decreased by 2,364,282,500.00
1 Month
23,030,986,000.00
decreased by 3,622,514,000.00
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 08:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 11, 2017 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~101 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6059 | 1.03 |
| αARCH | 0.6617 | 2.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3314 | 1.35 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 13.2836 | 1.08 |
| γ2 | -36.6769 | -2.03** |
| γ3 | 39.1953 | 3.16*** |
| γ4 | -24.2304 | -2.43** |
| γ5 | 26.3876 | 2.00** |
| γ6 | -44.0172 | -3.09*** |
| γ7 | 37.4271 | 4.84*** |
| γ8 | -4.6648 | -0.70 |
| γ9 | -16.3944 | -1.34 |
| γ10 | 37.8982 | 2.34** |
0.993
Persistence101d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6059 | 1.03 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6617 | 2.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3314 | 1.35 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 13.2836 | 1.08 |
| γ2 | -36.6769 | -2.03** |
| γ3 | 39.1953 | 3.16*** |
| γ4 | -24.2304 | -2.43** |
| γ5 | 26.3876 | 2.00** |
| γ6 | -44.0172 | -3.09*** |
| γ7 | 37.4271 | 4.84*** |
| γ8 | -4.6648 | -0.70 |
| γ9 | -16.3944 | -1.34 |
| γ10 | 37.8982 | 2.34** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
101 days
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