V-Lab
Future Generation Australia Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
39,690.08
decreased by 1,834.59
1 Week
34,916.03
decreased by 6,608.64
1 Month
29,517.63
decreased by 12,007.04
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 06:03 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 1997 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 373 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~373 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6806 | 2.38** |
| αARCH | 0.1301 | 17.86*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8680 | 107.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0949 | -3.40*** |
| γ2 | 0.1996 | 3.82*** |
| γ3 | -0.1340 | -3.11*** |
| γ4 | -0.0049 | -0.10 |
0.998
Persistence373d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6806 | 2.38** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1301 | 17.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8680 | 107.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0949 | -3.40*** |
| γ2 | 0.1996 | 3.82*** |
| γ3 | -0.1340 | -3.11*** |
| γ4 | -0.0049 | -0.10 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
373 days
Other Future Generation Australia Ltd Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Closed-end Funds