Future Generation Australia Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
32,010.50
decreased by 1,410.56
1 Week
31,815.39
decreased by 1,605.67
1 Month
32,816.80
decreased by 604.26
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 1997 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 227 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7324 | 1.76* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1309 | 17.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8660 | 101.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0129 | -0.93 |
| γ2 | 0.0583 | 2.10** |
| γ3 | -0.0976 | -3.47*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
227 days
Other Future Generation Australia Ltd Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Closed-end Funds