V-Lab
Future Generation Australia Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
26,242.50
decreased by 1,065.00
1 Week
30,421.00
increased by 3,113.50
1 Month
29,196.23
increased by 1,888.73
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 227 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7353 | 1.77* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1306 | 17.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8663 | 102.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0123 | -0.89 |
| γ2 | 0.0571 | 2.08** |
| γ3 | -0.0975 | -3.46*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
227 days
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