V-Lab
Future Generation Australia Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
26,764.77
decreased by 2,139.49
1 Week
29,469.06
increased by 564.80
1 Month
33,279.41
increased by 4,375.15
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 1997 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 230 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5958 | 1.79* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1317 | 17.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8653 | 101.31*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0752 | -2.49** |
| γ2 | 0.1059 | 2.00** |
| γ3 | 0.0332 | 0.60 |
| γ4 | -0.1101 | -2.16** |
| γ5 | 0.0250 | 0.47 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
230 days
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