ArrowMark Financial Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
23,147.40
decreased by 781.50
1 Week
21,065.83
decreased by 2,863.07
1 Month
16,251.54
decreased by 7,677.36
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:01 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 7, 2013 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9709 | 7.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.1202 | 8.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8586 | 55.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0168 | -3.48*** |
0.979
Persistence32d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9709 | 7.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1202 | 8.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8586 | 55.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0168 | -3.48*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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