V-Lab
ArrowMark Financial Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
14,246.27
increased by 321.00
1 Week
13,540.32
decreased by 384.95
1 Month
10,219.75
decreased by 3,705.52
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 7, 2013 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9516 | 7.23*** |
| αARCH | 0.1189 | 8.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8601 | 55.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0173 | -3.53*** |
0.979
Persistence33d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9516 | 7.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1189 | 8.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8601 | 55.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0173 | -3.53*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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