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ArrowMark Financial Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

14,479.36

increased by 1,100.48

1 Week

14,597.63

increased by 1,218.75

1 Month

13,128.05

decreased by 250.83

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:01 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ArrowMark Financial Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 7, 2013 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.9537
7.24***
αARCH0.1191
8.57***
βGARCH0.8598
55.57***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0173
-3.55***

0.979

Persistence

33d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.9537
7.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1191
8.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8598
55.57***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0173
-3.55***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days