V-Lab
ArrowMark Financial Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
9,448.41
decreased by 815.94
1 Week
10,733.26
increased by 468.91
1 Month
10,056.56
decreased by 207.79
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 7, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9694 | 7.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1197 | 8.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8591 | 55.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0165 | -3.20*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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