V-Lab
ArrowMark Financial Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
8,969.12
decreased by 173.01
1 Week
9,556.48
increased by 414.35
1 Month
10,453.15
increased by 1,311.02
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 7, 2013 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9396 | 7.22*** |
| αARCH | 0.1181 | 8.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8612 | 55.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0177 | -3.54*** |
0.979
Persistence33d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9396 | 7.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1181 | 8.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8612 | 55.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0177 | -3.54*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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