V-Lab
BioPharma Credit PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
3,641.61
increased by 162.81
1 Week
3,586.60
increased by 107.80
1 Month
4,058.76
increased by 579.96
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 24, 2017 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0474 | 2.99*** |
| αARCH | 0.1390 | 4.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7510 | 12.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -3.7956 | -3.60*** |
| γ2 | 5.5638 | 3.84*** |
| γ3 | -2.5166 | -3.57*** |
| γ4 | 1.4209 | 2.61*** |
| γ5 | -0.9990 | -2.02** |
| γ6 | 1.0048 | 1.75* |
| γ7 | -1.5599 | -2.23** |
| γ8 | 1.0901 | 1.24 |
0.890
Persistence6d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0474 | 2.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1390 | 4.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7510 | 12.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -3.7956 | -3.60*** |
| γ2 | 5.5638 | 3.84*** |
| γ3 | -2.5166 | -3.57*** |
| γ4 | 1.4209 | 2.61*** |
| γ5 | -0.9990 | -2.02** |
| γ6 | 1.0048 | 1.75* |
| γ7 | -1.5599 | -2.23** |
| γ8 | 1.0901 | 1.24 |
Persistence:
0.890
Half-life:
6 days
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