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BioPharma Credit PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

3,641.61

increased by 162.81

1 Week

3,586.60

increased by 107.80

1 Month

4,058.76

increased by 579.96

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of BioPharma Credit PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 24, 2017 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0474
2.99***
αARCH0.1390
4.48***
βGARCH0.7510
12.81***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-3.7956
-3.60***
γ25.5638
3.84***
γ3-2.5166
-3.57***
γ41.4209
2.61***
γ5-0.9990
-2.02**
γ61.0048
1.75*
γ7-1.5599
-2.23**
γ81.0901
1.24

0.890

Persistence

6d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0474
2.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1390
4.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7510
12.81***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-3.7956
-3.60***
γ25.5638
3.84***
γ3-2.5166
-3.57***
γ41.4209
2.61***
γ5-0.9990
-2.02**
γ61.0048
1.75*
γ7-1.5599
-2.23**
γ81.0901
1.24

Persistence:

0.890

Half-life:

6 days