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NAOS Small Cap Opportunities C Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

17,572,320.00

increased by 429,750.00

1 Week

17,579,704.00

increased by 437,134.00

1 Month

15,647,283.50

decreased by 1,495,286.50

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 12:51 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NAOS Small Cap Opportunities C ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 25, 2004 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2411
3.43***
αARCH0.1905
5.86***
βGARCH0.7531
23.36***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.2951
1.53
γ2-0.2811
-0.96
γ3-0.1414
-0.65
γ40.2209
1.16
γ5-0.1893
-1.01
γ60.5163
1.81*
γ7-1.1495
-2.97***
γ82.0046
3.49***
γ9-2.5007
-3.09***
γ102.0927
2.03**

0.944

Persistence

12d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2411
3.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1905
5.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7531
23.36***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.2951
1.53
γ2-0.2811
-0.96
γ3-0.1414
-0.65
γ40.2209
1.16
γ5-0.1893
-1.01
γ60.5163
1.81*
γ7-1.1495
-2.97***
γ82.0046
3.49***
γ9-2.5007
-3.09***
γ102.0927
2.03**

Persistence:

0.944

Half-life:

12 days