NAOS Small Cap Opportunities C Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
17,572,320.00
increased by 429,750.00
1 Week
17,579,704.00
increased by 437,134.00
1 Month
15,647,283.50
decreased by 1,495,286.50
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 12:51 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2004 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2411 | 3.43*** |
| αARCH | 0.1905 | 5.86*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7531 | 23.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.2951 | 1.53 |
| γ2 | -0.2811 | -0.96 |
| γ3 | -0.1414 | -0.65 |
| γ4 | 0.2209 | 1.16 |
| γ5 | -0.1893 | -1.01 |
| γ6 | 0.5163 | 1.81* |
| γ7 | -1.1495 | -2.97*** |
| γ8 | 2.0046 | 3.49*** |
| γ9 | -2.5007 | -3.09*** |
| γ10 | 2.0927 | 2.03** |
0.944
Persistence12d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2411 | 3.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1905 | 5.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7531 | 23.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.2951 | 1.53 |
| γ2 | -0.2811 | -0.96 |
| γ3 | -0.1414 | -0.65 |
| γ4 | 0.2209 | 1.16 |
| γ5 | -0.1893 | -1.01 |
| γ6 | 0.5163 | 1.81* |
| γ7 | -1.1495 | -2.97*** |
| γ8 | 2.0046 | 3.49*** |
| γ9 | -2.5007 | -3.09*** |
| γ10 | 2.0927 | 2.03** |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
Other NAOS Small Cap Opportunities C Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Closed-end Funds