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NAOS Small Cap Opportunities C Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

19,549,260.00

decreased by 982,940.00

1 Week

18,661,196.00

decreased by 1,871,004.00

1 Month

15,246,192.50

decreased by 5,286,007.50

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 06:25 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NAOS Small Cap Opportunities C ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 25, 2004 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2433
3.42***
αARCH0.1902
5.87***
βGARCH0.7541
23.45***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.2949
1.52
γ2-0.2807
-0.95
γ3-0.1417
-0.65
γ40.2212
1.16
γ5-0.1902
-1.00
γ60.5188
1.81*
γ7-1.1567
-2.96***
γ82.0196
3.47***
γ9-2.5201
-3.07***
γ102.1215
2.01**

0.944

Persistence

12d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2433
3.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1902
5.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7541
23.45***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.2949
1.52
γ2-0.2807
-0.95
γ3-0.1417
-0.65
γ40.2212
1.16
γ5-0.1902
-1.00
γ60.5188
1.81*
γ7-1.1567
-2.96***
γ82.0196
3.47***
γ9-2.5201
-3.07***
γ102.1215
2.01**

Persistence:

0.944

Half-life:

12 days