V-Lab
NAOS Small Cap Opportunities C Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
21,529,940.00
decreased by 1,396,470.00
1 Week
24,849,290.00
increased by 1,922,880.00
1 Month
75,667,124.76
increased by 52,740,714.76
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2004 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 55 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8818 | 2.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1870 | 7.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8004 | 34.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.1996 | 0.74 |
| γ2 | -0.1104 | -0.27 |
| γ3 | -0.3344 | -1.08 |
| γ4 | 0.5784 | 1.82* |
| γ5 | -1.5616 | -2.05** |
| γ6 | 3.7722 | 2.08** |
| γ7 | -5.2129 | -2.30** |
| γ8 | 5.3310 | 2.58*** |
| γ9 | -4.5766 | -2.43** |
| γ10 | 2.9204 | 1.64 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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