NAOS Small Cap Opportunities C Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
19,549,260.00
decreased by 982,940.00
1 Week
18,661,196.00
decreased by 1,871,004.00
1 Month
15,246,192.50
decreased by 5,286,007.50
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 06:25 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2004 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2433 | 3.42*** |
| αARCH | 0.1902 | 5.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7541 | 23.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.2949 | 1.52 |
| γ2 | -0.2807 | -0.95 |
| γ3 | -0.1417 | -0.65 |
| γ4 | 0.2212 | 1.16 |
| γ5 | -0.1902 | -1.00 |
| γ6 | 0.5188 | 1.81* |
| γ7 | -1.1567 | -2.96*** |
| γ8 | 2.0196 | 3.47*** |
| γ9 | -2.5201 | -3.07*** |
| γ10 | 2.1215 | 2.01** |
0.944
Persistence12d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2433 | 3.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1902 | 5.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7541 | 23.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.2949 | 1.52 |
| γ2 | -0.2807 | -0.95 |
| γ3 | -0.1417 | -0.65 |
| γ4 | 0.2212 | 1.16 |
| γ5 | -0.1902 | -1.00 |
| γ6 | 0.5188 | 1.81* |
| γ7 | -1.1567 | -2.96*** |
| γ8 | 2.0196 | 3.47*** |
| γ9 | -2.5201 | -3.07*** |
| γ10 | 2.1215 | 2.01** |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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