V-Lab
NAOS Small Cap Opportunities C Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
17,157,290.00
decreased by 185,450.00
1 Week
17,181,780.00
decreased by 160,960.00
1 Month
20,183,490.48
increased by 2,840,750.48
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 48 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8273 | 2.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1901 | 7.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7957 | 32.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.2135 | 0.82 |
| γ2 | -0.1370 | -0.34 |
| γ3 | -0.3027 | -1.01 |
| γ4 | 0.5238 | 1.76* |
| γ5 | -1.2844 | -2.12** |
| γ6 | 3.0531 | 2.22** |
| γ7 | -4.3047 | -2.48** |
| γ8 | 4.6102 | 2.81*** |
| γ9 | -4.1673 | -2.65*** |
| γ10 | 2.8269 | 1.74* |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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