V-Lab
Naos Emerging Opportunities Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
5,273,641.00
increased by 158,318.00
1 Week
5,184,196.20
increased by 68,873.20
1 Month
4,482,352.95
decreased by 632,970.05
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3872 | 3.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1719 | 3.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7260 | 12.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.5925 | 1.88* |
| γ2 | -1.7280 | -1.33 |
| γ3 | 0.2534 | 0.31 |
| γ4 | 0.0707 | 0.09 |
| γ5 | -1.1082 | -1.52 |
| γ6 | 1.9066 | 2.23** |
| γ7 | -1.4113 | -1.34 |
| γ8 | 1.9200 | 1.13 |
| γ9 | -2.9321 | -0.94 |
| γ10 | -0.0782 | -0.02 |
Persistence:
0.898
Half-life:
6 days
Other Naos Emerging Opportunities Co Ltd Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Closed-end Funds