Naos Emerging Opportunities Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
10,380,450.00
increased by 52,830.00
1 Week
11,228,366.00
increased by 900,746.00
1 Month
11,351,936.82
increased by 1,024,316.82
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2013 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4308 | 3.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1823 | 3.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7272 | 13.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.5166 | 1.76* |
| γ2 | -1.5604 | -1.18 |
| γ3 | 0.0806 | 0.10 |
| γ4 | 0.2361 | 0.29 |
| γ5 | -1.2970 | -1.65* |
| γ6 | 2.1055 | 2.15** |
| γ7 | -1.6064 | -1.30 |
| γ8 | 2.1309 | 1.07 |
| γ9 | -3.1213 | -0.93 |
| γ10 | 0.6493 | 0.15 |
Persistence:
0.909
Half-life:
7 days
Other Naos Emerging Opportunities Co Ltd Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Closed-end Funds