V-Lab
Naos Emerging Opportunities Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
1,662,381.00
increased by 232,947.00
1 Week
1,542,925.20
increased by 113,491.20
1 Month
2,590,723.90
increased by 1,161,289.90
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2013 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3627 | 3.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1696 | 4.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7187 | 12.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.6256 | 1.95* |
| γ2 | -1.8084 | -1.41 |
| γ3 | 0.3390 | 0.42 |
| γ4 | -0.0035 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -1.0250 | -1.47 |
| γ6 | 1.8114 | 2.29** |
| γ7 | -1.3094 | -1.37 |
| γ8 | 1.8060 | 1.17 |
| γ9 | -2.8273 | -0.95 |
| γ10 | -0.5355 | -0.12 |
Persistence:
0.888
Half-life:
6 days
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