Naos Emerging Opportunities Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
3,051,486.00
1 Week
5,322,203.84
1 Month
3,537,736.82
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2013 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 1.0000 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2500 | 1.44 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -1.45 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0698 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1833 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8167 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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