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Naos Emerging Opportunities Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

3,051,486.00

increased by 2,166,581.80

1 Week

5,322,203.84

increased by 4,437,299.64

1 Month

3,537,736.82

increased by 2,652,832.62

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:07 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Naos Emerging Opportunities Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 26, 2013 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

1.0000
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2500
1.44
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-1.45
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0698
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1833
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8167
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days