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Oxford Lane Capital Corp. ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

1,719.54

increased by 77.06

1 Week

1,656.26

increased by 13.78

1 Month

1,230.24

decreased by 412.24

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:10 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Oxford Lane Capital Corp. ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 20, 2011 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 508 trading days (~2.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 141% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~508 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 141% more after negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow31
αARCH0.1549
9.02***
βGARCH0.7345
30.25***
γleverage0.2186
9.64***
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
0.02
λ₂forecast adj.0.2041
3.25***
λ₃tau persistence0.7950
12.98***

0.999

Persistence

508d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1549
9.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7345
30.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2186
9.64***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.02
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2041
3.25***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7950
12.98***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

508 days