V-Lab
Oxford Lane Capital Corp. ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
1,435.68
1 Week
1,624.07
1 Month
1,369.22
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 2011 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 631 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1654 | 1.27 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7159 | 18.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2352 | 1.28 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.10 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1953 | 2.10** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8040 | 3.25*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
631 days
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