V-Lab
Oxford Lane Capital Corp. ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
1,337.95
1 Week
1,166.61
1 Month
1,419.22
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 489 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1554 | 1.27 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7344 | 22.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2176 | 1.21 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.13 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2051 | 2.14** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7939 | 3.07*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
489 days
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