Oxford Lane Capital Corp. ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
1,719.54
1 Week
1,656.26
1 Month
1,230.24
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 2011 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 508 trading days (~2.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 141% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.1549 | 9.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7345 | 30.25*** |
| γleverage | 0.2186 | 9.64*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.02 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.2041 | 3.25*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7950 | 12.98*** |
0.999
Persistence508d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1549 | 9.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7345 | 30.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2186 | 9.64*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.02 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2041 | 3.25*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7950 | 12.98*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
508 days
Other Oxford Lane Capital Corp. Analyses
Other ILLIQ-MFMEM Analyses on Closed-end Funds