V-Lab
Katana Capital Ltd/Fund ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
654,931,500.00
1 Week
659,357,500.00
1 Month
690,885,337.50
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 05:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 27, 2005 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 11179 trading days (~44.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0277 | 1.19 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9828 | 235.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0212 | -0.53 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.7944 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0011 | 1.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9989 | 129.90*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
11179 days
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