L1 Global Long Short Fund Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
11,207.18
1 Week
12,613.72
1 Month
12,526.88
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 1994 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1260 | 0.23 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7391 | 37.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1260 | -0.11 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.50 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0475 | 0.25 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9525 | 55.82*** |
Persistence:
0.802
Half-life:
3 days
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