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L1 Global Long Short Fund Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

10,340.55

increased by 948.68

1 Week

10,034.73

increased by 642.86

1 Month

9,435.88

increased by 44.01

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 05:53 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of L1 Global Long Short Fund Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 29, 1994 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~693147 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.09
αARCH0.0621
7.11***
βGARCH0.9322
185.08***
γleverage0.0114
0.70

1.000

Persistence

693147d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.09
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0621
7.11***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9322
185.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0114
0.70

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days