Cadence Capital Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
76,812.17
1 Week
81,459.04
1 Month
80,276.80
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 5, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 75% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.25 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0322 | 12.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9556 | 471.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0243 | 3.07*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
Other Cadence Capital Ltd Analyses
Other Asymmetric ILLIQ Analyses on Closed-end Funds