Thorney Opportunities Ltd/Fund Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
569,931,500.00
decreased by 4,816,700.00
1 Week
579,694,420.00
increased by 4,946,220.00
1 Month
407,569,460.00
decreased by 167,178,740.00
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 05:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 22, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0114 | 1.14 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9916 | 324.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0058 | -0.47 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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