PM Capital Global Opportunities Fund Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
11,787.94
1 Week
10,905.49
1 Month
8,671.70
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 12, 2013 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 65% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.29 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0604 | 19.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9199 | 313.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0394 | 5.72*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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