Skip to main content
V-Lab

PM Capital Global Opportunities Fund Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026

1 Day

11,240.52

decreased by 379.45

1 Week

11,487.80

decreased by 132.17

1 Month

10,954.98

decreased by 664.99

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of PM Capital Global Opportunities Fund Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 12, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 65% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.29
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0603
19.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9201
315.85***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0392
5.72***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-