PM Capital Global Opportunities Fund Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
14,127.04
decreased by 557.73
1 Week
12,852.45
decreased by 1,832.32
1 Month
10,741.11
decreased by 3,943.66
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 12, 2013 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2425 | 5.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1449 | 7.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8240 | 40.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0235 | -4.14*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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