V-Lab
PM Capital Global Opportunities Fund Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
6,025.11
decreased by 703.74
1 Week
7,220.07
increased by 491.22
1 Month
10,241.14
increased by 3,512.29
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 12, 2013 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2314 | 5.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1448 | 7.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8237 | 40.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0242 | -4.33*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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