V-Lab
PM Capital Global Opportunities Fund Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
10,286.86
decreased by 1,079.55
1 Week
11,899.43
increased by 533.02
1 Month
12,066.66
increased by 700.25
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 12, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2417 | 5.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1435 | 7.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8257 | 40.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0235 | -4.16*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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