V-Lab
Montanaro European Smaller Cos Trust PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
32,572.93
decreased by 8,574.93
1 Week
41,720.26
increased by 572.40
1 Month
38,355.46
decreased by 2,792.40
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 107 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1554 | 0.91 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3408 | 3.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6528 | 7.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -1.6928 | -2.85*** |
| γ2 | 1.7590 | 1.95* |
| γ3 | 0.3420 | 0.71 |
| γ4 | -0.3108 | -0.71 |
| γ5 | -0.7496 | -1.23 |
| γ6 | 0.8940 | 1.67* |
| γ7 | 0.1622 | 0.51 |
| γ8 | -0.7508 | -2.74*** |
| γ9 | 0.5595 | 0.95 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
107 days
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