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Montanaro European Smaller Cos Trust PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

32,572.93

decreased by 8,574.93

1 Week

41,720.26

increased by 572.40

1 Month

38,355.46

decreased by 2,792.40

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Montanaro European Smaller Cos Trust PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 107 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1554
0.91
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3408
3.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6528
7.22***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-1.6928
-2.85***
γ21.7590
1.95*
γ30.3420
0.71
γ4-0.3108
-0.71
γ5-0.7496
-1.23
γ60.8940
1.67*
γ70.1622
0.51
γ8-0.7508
-2.74***
γ90.5595
0.95

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

107 days