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Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
7,774.70
increased by 247.61
1 Week
8,068.05
increased by 540.96
1 Month
9,136.86
increased by 1,609.77
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 23, 2018 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 149 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~149 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0093 | 4.26*** |
| αARCH | 0.0791 | 7.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9162 | 88.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0289 | -1.18 |
0.995
Persistence149d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0093 | 4.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0791 | 7.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9162 | 88.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0289 | -1.18 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
149 days
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