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Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
6,583.87
decreased by 370.55
1 Week
6,989.61
increased by 35.19
1 Month
7,747.45
increased by 793.03
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 03:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 23, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 149 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0101 | 4.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0794 | 7.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9159 | 88.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0287 | -1.15 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
149 days
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