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Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

6,583.87

decreased by 370.55

1 Week

6,989.61

increased by 35.19

1 Month

7,747.45

increased by 793.03

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 03:07 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 23, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 149 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0101
4.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0794
7.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9159
88.28***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0287
-1.15

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

149 days