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Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
11,752.68
increased by 1,186.16
1 Week
10,858.59
increased by 292.07
1 Month
10,139.27
decreased by 427.25
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 23, 2018 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 152 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0121 | 4.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0798 | 7.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9156 | 88.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0274 | -1.09 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
152 days
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