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Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

7,774.70

increased by 247.61

1 Week

8,068.05

increased by 540.96

1 Month

9,136.86

increased by 1,609.77

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 23, 2018 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 149 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~149 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0093
4.26***
αARCH0.0791
7.63***
βGARCH0.9162
88.75***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0289
-1.18

0.995

Persistence

149d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0093
4.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0791
7.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9162
88.75***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0289
-1.18

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

149 days