Plato Income Maximiser Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
7,209.08
decreased by 441.03
1 Week
8,010.34
increased by 360.23
1 Month
9,758.59
increased by 2,108.48
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 05:53 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2017 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.3051 | 9.71*** |
| αARCH | 0.0600 | 5.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8963 | 34.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0002 | -0.02 |
0.956
Persistence16d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3051 | 9.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0600 | 5.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8963 | 34.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0002 | -0.02 |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
16 days
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