V-Lab
Plato Income Maximiser Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
11,613.12
increased by 367.65
1 Week
11,667.79
increased by 422.32
1 Month
10,869.09
decreased by 376.38
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 06:10 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2017 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.3136 | 9.66*** |
| αARCH | 0.0606 | 5.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8961 | 33.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0005 | 0.07 |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3136 | 9.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0606 | 5.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8961 | 33.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0005 | 0.07 |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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