V-Lab
Plato Income Maximiser Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
9,982.82
decreased by 267.95
1 Week
10,712.94
increased by 462.17
1 Month
9,426.58
decreased by 824.19
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2017 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.3014 | 9.68*** |
| αARCH | 0.0612 | 5.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8940 | 33.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0002 | -0.03 |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3014 | 9.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0612 | 5.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8940 | 33.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0002 | -0.03 |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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