V-Lab
Cadence Capital Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
64,010.86
decreased by 5,395.52
1 Week
68,437.62
decreased by 968.76
1 Month
61,810.56
decreased by 7,595.82
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 05:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 5, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1435 | 5.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1259 | 4.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7194 | 15.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.8505 | -2.74*** |
| γ2 | 0.3697 | 0.73 |
| γ3 | 1.0983 | 3.26*** |
| γ4 | -0.4482 | -2.14** |
| γ5 | -0.3766 | -2.44** |
| γ6 | 0.3381 | 2.24** |
| γ7 | -0.3330 | -1.97** |
| γ8 | 0.5998 | 3.30*** |
| γ9 | -0.8569 | -3.90*** |
| γ10 | 0.7432 | 2.10** |
Persistence:
0.845
Half-life:
4 days
Other Cadence Capital Ltd Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Closed-end Funds