V-Lab
Cadence Capital Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
50,997.28
decreased by 3,836.63
1 Week
51,875.09
decreased by 2,958.82
1 Month
70,511.27
increased by 15,677.36
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 05:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 5, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1401 | 5.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1256 | 4.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7157 | 15.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.8509 | -2.71*** |
| γ2 | 0.3642 | 0.72 |
| γ3 | 1.0969 | 3.25*** |
| γ4 | -0.4225 | -2.01** |
| γ5 | -0.4106 | -2.63*** |
| γ6 | 0.3738 | 2.46** |
| γ7 | -0.3816 | -2.25** |
| γ8 | 0.6544 | 3.59*** |
| γ9 | -0.8910 | -3.94*** |
| γ10 | 0.7582 | 2.04** |
Persistence:
0.841
Half-life:
4 days
Other Cadence Capital Ltd Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Closed-end Funds