Cadence Capital Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
84,452.15
decreased by 11,737.79
1 Week
94,712.90
decreased by 1,477.04
1 Month
97,590.21
increased by 1,400.27
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 5, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1373 | 5.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1247 | 4.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7159 | 15.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.8515 | -2.70*** |
| γ2 | 0.3621 | 0.71 |
| γ3 | 1.0954 | 3.23*** |
| γ4 | -0.4087 | -1.94* |
| γ5 | -0.4287 | -2.73*** |
| γ6 | 0.3933 | 2.58*** |
| γ7 | -0.4091 | -2.42** |
| γ8 | 0.6888 | 3.76*** |
| γ9 | -0.9263 | -3.99*** |
| γ10 | 0.8334 | 2.10** |
Persistence:
0.841
Half-life:
4 days
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