V-Lab
BB Biotech AG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
2,617.94
increased by 3.80
1 Week
2,382.26
decreased by 231.88
1 Month
2,329.37
decreased by 284.77
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 12:24 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 1993 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 144 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~144 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9657 | 6.96*** |
| αARCH | 0.1044 | 13.16*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8908 | 94.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0002 | -0.11 |
0.995
Persistence144d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9657 | 6.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1044 | 13.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8908 | 94.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0002 | -0.11 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
144 days
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