V-Lab
BB Biotech AG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
2,432.45
decreased by 184.85
1 Week
2,699.84
increased by 82.54
1 Month
3,343.25
increased by 725.95
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 1993 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 146 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9528 | 6.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1046 | 13.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8906 | 94.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0003 | -0.18 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
146 days
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