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BB Biotech AG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

2,617.94

increased by 3.80

1 Week

2,382.26

decreased by 231.88

1 Month

2,329.37

decreased by 284.77

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 12:24 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of BB Biotech AG ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 15, 1993 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 144 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~144 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.9657
6.96***
αARCH0.1044
13.16***
βGARCH0.8908
94.98***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0002
-0.11

0.995

Persistence

144d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.9657
6.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1044
13.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8908
94.98***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0002
-0.11

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

144 days