V-Lab
BB Biotech AG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
2,659.69
increased by 426.07
1 Week
2,384.33
increased by 150.71
1 Month
2,343.70
increased by 110.08
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 1993 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 147 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~147 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9433 | 6.92*** |
| αARCH | 0.1045 | 13.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8908 | 95.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0004 | -0.23 |
0.995
Persistence147d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9433 | 6.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1045 | 13.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8908 | 95.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0004 | -0.23 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
147 days
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