BB Biotech AG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
3,918.40
increased by 260.22
1 Week
3,850.14
increased by 191.96
1 Month
3,059.50
decreased by 598.68
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 1993 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 140 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~140 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0025 | 7.00*** |
| αARCH | 0.1046 | 13.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8904 | 94.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.08 |
0.995
Persistence140d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0025 | 7.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1046 | 13.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8904 | 94.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.08 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
140 days
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