V-Lab
Montanaro European Smaller Cos Trust PLC ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
58,418.90
1 Week
69,896.82
1 Month
44,235.77
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.5697 | 2.86*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6255 | 8.80*** |
| γleverage | -0.5000 | -1.77* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.15 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0324 | 1.66* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9676 | 58.61*** |
0.945
Persistence12d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5697 | 2.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6255 | 8.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -1.77* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.15 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0324 | 1.66* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9676 | 58.61*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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