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Montanaro European Smaller Cos Trust PLC ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

58,418.90

decreased by 29,316.50

1 Week

69,896.82

decreased by 17,838.58

1 Month

44,235.77

decreased by 43,499.63

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Montanaro European Smaller Cos Trust PLC ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 12-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow46
αARCH0.5697
2.86***
βGARCH0.6255
8.80***
γleverage-0.5000
-1.77*
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
0.15
λ₂forecast adj.0.0324
1.66*
λ₃tau persistence0.9676
58.61***

0.945

Persistence

12d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5697
2.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6255
8.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-1.77*
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.15
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0324
1.66*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9676
58.61***

Persistence:

0.945

Half-life:

12 days