V-Lab
JPMorgan UK Small CAP Growth & Income PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
10,475.90
increased by 287.57
1 Week
10,553.51
increased by 365.18
1 Month
11,277.49
increased by 1,089.16
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.10 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0813 | 3.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9239 | 193.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0106 | -0.28 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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