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JPMorgan UK Small CAP Growth & Income PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

9,116.98

decreased by 797.29

1 Week

11,155.30

increased by 1,241.03

1 Month

13,236.25

increased by 3,321.98

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of JPMorgan UK Small CAP Growth & Income PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

8.8389
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2049
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7951
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-1.0294
-0.01
γ21.5641
0.01
γ3-3.8438
0.00
γ48.8738
0.00
γ5-8.7293
0.00
γ63.8952
0.00
γ7-1.2312
0.00
γ81.0243
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

77016 days