V-Lab
JPMorgan UK Small CAP Growth & Income PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
14,155.48
increased by 97.38
1 Week
10,403.26
decreased by 3,654.84
1 Month
12,288.31
decreased by 1,769.79
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 688 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1775 | 3.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1978 | 6.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8012 | 28.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.9194 | -1.93* |
| γ2 | 1.4398 | 1.84* |
| γ3 | -3.8228 | -2.78*** |
| γ4 | 8.8747 | 3.41*** |
| γ5 | -8.7498 | -3.73*** |
| γ6 | 3.9250 | 4.40*** |
| γ7 | -1.2777 | -4.35*** |
| γ8 | 1.1427 | 3.34*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
688 days
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