V-Lab
JPMorgan UK Small CAP Growth & Income PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
9,116.98
decreased by 797.29
1 Week
11,155.30
increased by 1,241.03
1 Month
13,236.25
increased by 3,321.98
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.8389 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2049 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7951 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.0294 | -0.01 |
| γ2 | 1.5641 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | -3.8438 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 8.8738 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -8.7293 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | 3.8952 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | -1.2312 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | 1.0243 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
77016 days
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