V-Lab
JPMorgan UK Small CAP Growth & Income PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
11,546.30
increased by 1,316.24
1 Week
10,960.41
increased by 730.35
1 Month
14,406.81
increased by 4,176.75
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 761 trading days (~3.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1737 | 3.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1964 | 6.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8027 | 28.31*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.9514 | -1.97** |
| γ2 | 1.4867 | 1.87* |
| γ3 | -3.8009 | -2.79*** |
| γ4 | 8.7345 | 3.45*** |
| γ5 | -8.5678 | -3.78*** |
| γ6 | 3.8058 | 4.44*** |
| γ7 | -1.1910 | -4.11*** |
| γ8 | 0.9989 | 3.10*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
761 days
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