V-Lab
Montanaro UK Smaller Companies Investment Trust PLC ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
54,542.13
1 Week
62,745.69
1 Month
62,914.40
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1706 | 3.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8719 | 78.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1705 | -2.58*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.18 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9984 |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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