V-Lab
Montanaro UK Smaller Companies Investment Trust PLC ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
93,119.92
1 Week
102,784.44
1 Month
79,058.08
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:42 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1701 | 3.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8722 | 79.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1701 | -2.59*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.17 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9984 |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
Other Montanaro UK Smaller Companies Investment Trust PLC Analyses
Other ILLIQ-MFMEM Analyses on Closed-end Funds