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Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC/The Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

9,342.15

decreased by 677.48

1 Week

10,225.44

increased by 205.81

1 Month

7,147.52

decreased by 2,872.11

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC/The ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0267
5.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0778
1.57
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9221
18.60***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0137
-0.28

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

86643 days