V-Lab
Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC/The Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
5,854.44
decreased by 444.29
1 Week
6,583.45
increased by 284.72
1 Month
6,878.42
increased by 579.69
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 69314 trading days (~275.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0262 | 5.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0775 | 2.08** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9224 | 24.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0147 | -0.37 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
69314 days
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