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Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC/The Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

5,854.44

decreased by 444.29

1 Week

6,583.45

increased by 284.72

1 Month

6,878.42

increased by 579.69

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC/The ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 69314 trading days (~275.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0262
5.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0775
2.08**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9224
24.79***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0147
-0.37

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

69314 days