V-Lab
Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC/The Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
9,342.15
decreased by 677.48
1 Week
10,225.44
increased by 205.81
1 Month
7,147.52
decreased by 2,872.11
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0267 | 5.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0778 | 1.57 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9221 | 18.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0137 | -0.28 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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