V-Lab
Titan SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
3,776.31
decreased by 375.62
1 Week
4,549.58
increased by 397.65
1 Month
4,355.95
increased by 204.02
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 05:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 22, 2018 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4245 | 8.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0856 | 5.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8897 | 42.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0966 | -7.40*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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