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V-Lab

Til Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

701.64

increased by 164.88

1 Week

459.33

decreased by 77.43

1 Month

548.71

increased by 11.95

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:38 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Til Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 5, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2816
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2772
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7228
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-2.2957
-0.01
γ24.2432
0.01
γ3-4.5605
0.00
γ46.6933
0.00
γ5-10.3687
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

86643 days