V-Lab
Til Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
701.64
increased by 164.88
1 Week
459.33
decreased by 77.43
1 Month
548.71
increased by 11.95
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 5, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2816 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2772 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7228 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -2.2957 | -0.01 |
| γ2 | 4.2432 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | -4.5605 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 6.6933 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -10.3687 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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