V-Lab
Til Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
1,136.14
1 Week
940.01
1 Month
1,204.99
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:37 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 5, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2599 | 0.03 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8043 | 37.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1283 | -0.01 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.03 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 0.03 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.03 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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