V-Lab
Til Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
1,401.20
1 Week
1,474.06
1 Month
1,173.70
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 10:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 5, 2006 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.2595 | 5.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8042 | 23.42*** |
| γleverage | -0.1375 | -3.01*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.16 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 1.0000 | 0.76 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.03 |
0.995
Persistence138d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2595 | 5.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8042 | 23.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1375 | -3.01*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.16 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 0.76 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.03 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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