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Til Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

1,136.14

increased by 123.10

1 Week

940.01

decreased by 73.03

1 Month

1,204.99

increased by 191.95

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:37 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Til Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 5, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2599
0.03
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8043
37.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1283
-0.01
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.03
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

1.0000
0.03
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.03

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days