V-Lab
S.N.T.G.N. Transgaz S.A. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
3,335.88
increased by 536.57
1 Week
2,818.22
increased by 18.91
1 Month
3,226.90
increased by 427.59
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2008 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8527 | 8.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1277 | 6.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7583 | 19.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4790 | -1.50 |
| γ2 | 0.6267 | 1.14 |
| γ3 | -0.7744 | -1.96* |
| γ4 | 1.4801 | 5.00*** |
| γ5 | -1.4740 | -4.94*** |
| γ6 | 1.1121 | 3.55*** |
| γ7 | -0.8097 | -3.22*** |
| γ8 | 0.4429 | 2.28** |
| γ9 | -0.1941 | -1.25 |
| γ10 | -0.3524 | -1.40 |
Persistence:
0.886
Half-life:
6 days
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