V-Lab
Tera Yatirim Menkul Degerler Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
35,393.10
increased by 24,563.52
1 Week
9,915.04
decreased by 914.54
1 Month
2,257.23
decreased by 8,572.35
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 08:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 2022 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.2841 | 1.49 |
| αARCH | 0.6310 | 4.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3446 | 2.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2350 | -1.83* |
0.976
Persistence28d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.2841 | 1.49 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6310 | 4.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3446 | 2.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2350 | -1.83* |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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