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Tera Yatirim Menkul Degerler Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026

1 Day

35,393.10

increased by 24,563.52

1 Week

9,915.04

decreased by 914.54

1 Month

2,257.23

decreased by 8,572.35

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 08:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Tera Yatirim Menkul Degerler ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 2022 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.2841
1.49
αARCH0.6310
4.43***
βGARCH0.3446
2.99***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.2350
-1.83*

0.976

Persistence

28d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.2841
1.49
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.6310
4.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3446
2.99***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.2350
-1.83*

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days