V-Lab
Tera Yatirim Menkul Degerler ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
35,925.44
1 Week
12,963.73
1 Month
2,950.92
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 08:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 2022 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows asymmetric liquidity dynamics: illiquidity rises 80% more after negative returns than after positive returns of equal magnitude. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.6172 | 4.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0762 | 1.87* |
| γleverage | 0.4954 | 2.46** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 5.1528 | 0.51 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 1.0000 | 16.34*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.941
Persistence11d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6172 | 4.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0762 | 1.87* |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4954 | 2.46** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.1528 | 0.51 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 16.34*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.941
Half-life:
11 days
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