V-Lab
TAKE Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 27th, 2026
1 Day
11,312.71
increased by 5,329.44
1 Week
4,674.99
decreased by 1,308.28
1 Month
2,386.55
decreased by 3,596.72
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 07:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 5, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2542 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1841 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8159 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.4615 | |
| γ2 | 0.6108 | |
| γ3 | -0.1615 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
346573 days
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