V-Lab
PT Super Energy TBK Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
10,218.77
increased by 7,181.93
1 Week
4,145.99
increased by 1,109.15
1 Month
3,748.54
increased by 711.70
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 5, 2018 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9913 | 1.63 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1856 | 3.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7129 | 8.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 10.8300 | 1.63 |
| γ2 | -15.8291 | -1.67* |
| γ3 | 10.2280 | 1.99** |
| γ4 | -7.3963 | -1.46 |
| γ5 | -8.7959 | -1.29 |
| γ6 | 29.4647 | 4.67*** |
| γ7 | -33.6716 | -8.74*** |
| γ8 | 24.7933 | 5.16*** |
| γ9 | -14.7841 | -1.96* |
Persistence:
0.899
Half-life:
6 days
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