Skip to main content
V-Lab

PT Super Energy TBK Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

10,218.77

increased by 7,181.93

1 Week

4,145.99

increased by 1,109.15

1 Month

3,748.54

increased by 711.70

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of PT Super Energy TBK ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 5, 2018 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9913
1.63
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1856
3.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7129
8.26***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ110.8300
1.63
γ2-15.8291
-1.67*
γ310.2280
1.99**
γ4-7.3963
-1.46
γ5-8.7959
-1.29
γ629.4647
4.67***
γ7-33.6716
-8.74***
γ824.7933
5.16***
γ9-14.7841
-1.96*

Persistence:

0.899

Half-life:

6 days