Strata Critical Medical Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
5,897.36
increased by 971.45
1 Week
5,003.75
increased by 77.84
1 Month
4,576.73
decreased by 349.18
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:11 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 13, 2019 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 43 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7861 | 1.61 |
| αARCH | 0.1576 | 5.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8265 | 22.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -7.9394 | -3.44*** |
| γ2 | 14.8238 | 4.24*** |
| γ3 | -9.9609 | -5.02*** |
| γ4 | 3.6800 | 2.91*** |
| γ5 | -1.0561 | -1.05 |
| γ6 | 0.5829 | 0.49 |
0.984
Persistence43d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7861 | 1.61 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1576 | 5.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8265 | 22.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -7.9394 | -3.44*** |
| γ2 | 14.8238 | 4.24*** |
| γ3 | -9.9609 | -5.02*** |
| γ4 | 3.6800 | 2.91*** |
| γ5 | -1.0561 | -1.05 |
| γ6 | 0.5829 | 0.49 |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
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