V-Lab
Searefico Corporation Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
8,196.24
increased by 6,482.92
1 Week
3,164.65
increased by 1,451.33
1 Month
2,245.07
increased by 531.75
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 02:42 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 22, 2009 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6624 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1614 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8386 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.6518 | |
| γ2 | 0.8032 | |
| γ3 | 1.3139 | |
| γ4 | -1.8774 | |
| γ5 | 3.9966 | |
| γ6 | -4.4750 | |
| γ7 | 1.6978 | |
| γ8 | 1.2987 | |
| γ9 | -1.4612 | |
| γ10 | 0.4487 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
231049 days
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