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Searefico Corporation Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

8,196.24

increased by 6,482.92

1 Week

3,164.65

increased by 1,451.33

1 Month

2,245.07

increased by 531.75

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 02:42 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Searefico Corporation ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 22, 2009 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6624
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1614
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8386
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-1.6518
γ20.8032
γ31.3139
γ4-1.8774
γ53.9966
γ6-4.4750
γ71.6978
γ81.2987
γ9-1.4612
γ100.4487

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

231049 days