Searefico Corporation ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
5,506.19
1 Week
1,686.75
1 Month
844.08
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 02:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 22, 2009 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1871 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8047 | 11.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1871 | 0.00 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0410 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9590 | 43.37*** |
Persistence:
0.898
Half-life:
6 days
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