V-Lab
Searefico Corporation ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
9,124.24
1 Week
3,254.93
1 Month
2,177.96
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 02:41 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 22, 2009 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1857 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8061 | 12.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1857 | 0.00 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0405 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9595 | 47.01*** |
Persistence:
0.899
Half-life:
7 days
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