Sumou Real Estate Company Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
9,459.50
decreased by 1,358.97
1 Week
8,426.14
decreased by 2,392.33
1 Month
7,357.90
decreased by 3,460.57
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 11, 2020 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 186 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1356 | 2.18** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2772 | 11.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7190 | 30.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.8031 | -4.83*** |
| γ2 | 1.4316 | 5.52*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
186 days
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