V-Lab
Sumou Real Estate Company Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 9th, 2026
1 Day
11,843.94
decreased by 126.27
1 Week
14,793.31
increased by 2,823.10
1 Month
11,475.44
decreased by 494.77
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 11, 2020 to Aug 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 184 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1273 | 2.14** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2740 | 11.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7223 | 30.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.8000 | -4.87*** |
| γ2 | 1.4613 | 5.66*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
184 days
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