V-Lab
SigmaRoc PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
5,288.40
decreased by 241.37
1 Week
5,230.42
decreased by 299.35
1 Month
5,679.64
increased by 149.87
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 08:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 159 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4975 | 0.84 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0899 | 5.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9058 | 63.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -4.6822 | -2.10** |
| γ2 | 5.6938 | 1.68* |
| γ3 | -0.9816 | -0.43 |
| γ4 | -0.6330 | -0.22 |
| γ5 | 1.2447 | 0.40 |
| γ6 | -1.1492 | -0.47 |
| γ7 | 1.4987 | 0.87 |
| γ8 | -2.1412 | -1.79* |
| γ9 | 1.9402 | 1.98** |
| γ10 | -0.9418 | -0.84 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
159 days
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