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V-Lab

SigmaRoc PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

5,288.40

decreased by 241.37

1 Week

5,230.42

decreased by 299.35

1 Month

5,679.64

increased by 149.87

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 08:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SigmaRoc PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 159 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4975
0.84
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0899
5.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9058
63.00***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-4.6822
-2.10**
γ25.6938
1.68*
γ3-0.9816
-0.43
γ4-0.6330
-0.22
γ51.2447
0.40
γ6-1.1492
-0.47
γ71.4987
0.87
γ8-2.1412
-1.79*
γ91.9402
1.98**
γ10-0.9418
-0.84

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

159 days