V-Lab
SigmaRoc PLC ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
5,264.09
1 Week
5,233.96
1 Month
5,547.31
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 08:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0591 | 1.80* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9198 | 106.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0591 | -0.79 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 8.2580 | 3.07*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0031 | 0.96 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9925 | 619.18*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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