V-Lab
Sonmez Filament Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
6,677.19
increased by 930.41
1 Week
6,224.81
increased by 478.03
1 Month
5,481.66
decreased by 265.12
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 09:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 28, 1995 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 3629 trading days (~14.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0759 | 4.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1983 | 15.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8015 | 62.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.0852 | -5.56*** |
| γ2 | 1.5804 | 6.14*** |
| γ3 | -0.5812 | -5.54*** |
| γ4 | 0.0887 | 1.19 |
| γ5 | 0.1374 | 1.80* |
| γ6 | -0.3077 | -3.97*** |
| γ7 | 0.1752 | 1.84* |
| γ8 | 0.1949 | 1.46 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3629 days
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