V-Lab
Sonmez Filament Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
5,196.25
1 Week
5,279.95
1 Month
5,038.40
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 09:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 28, 1995 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 68% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 1.48 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1004 | 31.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8655 | 239.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0682 | 11.79*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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