Superloop Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
5,284.21
increased by 125.58
1 Week
5,681.22
increased by 522.59
1 Month
4,647.58
decreased by 511.05
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 05:54 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 4, 2015 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~82 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0253 | 6.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.1258 | 9.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8658 | 56.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0471 | -4.48*** |
0.992
Persistence82d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0253 | 6.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1258 | 9.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8658 | 56.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0471 | -4.48*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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