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Superloop Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

5,284.21

increased by 125.58

1 Week

5,681.22

increased by 522.59

1 Month

4,647.58

decreased by 511.05

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 05:54 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Superloop Limited ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 4, 2015 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~82 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0253
6.30***
αARCH0.1258
9.13***
βGARCH0.8658
56.64***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0471
-4.48***

0.992

Persistence

82d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0253
6.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1258
9.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8658
56.64***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0471
-4.48***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

82 days