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Skjern Bank Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026

1 Day

3,433.48

decreased by 79.37

1 Week

3,601.30

increased by 88.45

1 Month

3,636.35

increased by 123.50

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 07:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Skjern Bank ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 12, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 43321 trading days (~171.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0069
0.52
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0926
0.03
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9074
0.34
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.4601
-0.02
γ20.5575
0.03
γ3-0.0589
-0.01
γ4-0.2345
-0.07
γ50.5231
0.25
γ6-1.2910
-4.45***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

43321 days