V-Lab
Skjern Bank Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
3,433.48
decreased by 79.37
1 Week
3,601.30
increased by 88.45
1 Month
3,636.35
increased by 123.50
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 07:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 12, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 43321 trading days (~171.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0069 | 0.52 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0926 | 0.03 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9074 | 0.34 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.4601 | -0.02 |
| γ2 | 0.5575 | 0.03 |
| γ3 | -0.0589 | -0.01 |
| γ4 | -0.2345 | -0.07 |
| γ5 | 0.5231 | 0.25 |
| γ6 | -1.2910 | -4.45*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
43321 days
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