V-Lab
Sierra Cables PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
153.05
increased by 27.00
1 Week
144.30
increased by 18.25
1 Month
565.83
increased by 439.78
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2010 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2629 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2171 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7829 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 1.9493 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -4.6026 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 3.6812 | 0.01 |
| γ4 | -0.9426 | -0.01 |
| γ5 | -2.4174 | -0.01 |
| γ6 | 6.1159 | 0.01 |
| γ7 | -6.6143 | -0.03 |
| γ8 | 3.7475 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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