V-Lab
Security Paper Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
2,310.89
decreased by 260.04
1 Week
2,697.78
increased by 126.85
1 Month
5,337.54
increased by 2,766.61
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 14, 1997 to Aug 13, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1027 trading days (~4.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9635 | 3.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1321 | 5.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8672 | 39.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.3578 | 0.26 |
| γ2 | -2.7147 | -1.07 |
| γ3 | 7.2689 | 1.54 |
| γ4 | -11.4366 | -1.79* |
| γ5 | 11.9222 | 1.77* |
| γ6 | -6.6140 | -1.52 |
| γ7 | 0.3766 | 0.34 |
| γ8 | 1.3144 | 2.18** |
| γ9 | -1.0081 | -1.73* |
| γ10 | 0.5814 | 0.66 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1027 days
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