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Security Paper Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

2,310.89

decreased by 260.04

1 Week

2,697.78

increased by 126.85

1 Month

5,337.54

increased by 2,766.61

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Security Paper ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 14, 1997 to Aug 13, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1027 trading days (~4.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.9635
3.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1321
5.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8672
39.50***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.3578
0.26
γ2-2.7147
-1.07
γ37.2689
1.54
γ4-11.4366
-1.79*
γ511.9222
1.77*
γ6-6.6140
-1.52
γ70.3766
0.34
γ81.3144
2.18**
γ9-1.0081
-1.73*
γ100.5814
0.66

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1027 days