V-Lab
Security Paper Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
4,862.79
decreased by 100.87
1 Week
4,996.01
increased by 32.35
1 Month
5,254.21
increased by 290.55
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 14, 1997 to Aug 13, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.13 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0427 | 4.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9787 | 916.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0427 | -4.37*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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