V-Lab
Nforce Secure Pcl Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
6,076.01
increased by 110.85
1 Week
6,314.02
increased by 348.86
1 Month
8,768.52
increased by 2,803.36
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 08:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 5, 2021 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4693 | 6.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2207 | 7.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7345 | 21.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1327 | -3.26*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
Other Nforce Secure Pcl Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities