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V-Lab

Nforce Secure Pcl Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

6,076.01

increased by 110.85

1 Week

6,314.02

increased by 348.86

1 Month

8,768.52

increased by 2,803.36

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 08:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Nforce Secure Pcl ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 5, 2021 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4693
6.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2207
7.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7345
21.30***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1327
-3.26***

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days